Page 36 - WEF Reoprt 2020

Stress on ecosystems resource extraction, all of which could
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Oceans are getting warmer, stormier cause tension between countries already
and more acidic, impacting the health of at odds over unresolved maritime and land
sensitive marine ecosystems such as coral boundaries (see Chapter 1, Global Risks
reefs. As glaciers and ice sheets melt, 2020). According to the UN, water was
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low-lying geographies will flood; indeed, a major factor in conflict in 45 countries
14
by 2050, three times more people will be in 2017; disputes between upstream and
impacted than previously thought. This downstream areas will likely intensify.
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15
risk was explored in detail in the 2019 And as transition to a more decentralized,
Global Risks Report chapter Fight or renewable energy economy changes
Flight, which examined the intersection of geopolitical equations and creates new
rapid urbanization and rising sea levels. vulnerabilities for certain states and regions,
Additionally, a scenario in which ice-cap states’ relative position in the international
melt creates disruption to the Gulf Stream system will shift as well. 25
could cause further ecosystem disorder,
as well as major change in the pattern of
severe weather perils. Another significant
unknown risk relates to the potential thawing US$
of permafrost—frozen soil around the poles
that stores nearly twice as much carbon as
the atmosphere currently holds. If the soil
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thaws, this carbon could be released with
unprecedented consequences. 165 billion
Food and water crises in worldwide economic stress and
Crop yields will likely drop in many
regions, undermining the ability to double damage from natural disasters in 2018
food production by 2050 to meet rising
demand. Because agriculture, livestock and
deforestation produce nearly a quarter of
global emissions, more efficient use of land
is critical; it’s also one of the best potential Economic impacts
carbon sequestration options. Water Worldwide economic stress and damage
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scarcity will increase as well—it already from natural disasters in 2018 totalled
affects a quarter of the world’s population. 18 US$165 billion, and 50% of that total was
uninsured. A report by federal agencies
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Increased migration suggests that, in the United States alone,
From 2008 to 2016, over 20 million people climate-related economic damage could
a year have been forced from their homes reach 10% of gross domestic product (GDP)
by extreme weather such as floods, storms, by the end of the century. Over 200 of the
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wildfires and hotter temperatures. Tropical world’s largest firms estimated that climate
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Cyclone Idai, for example, displaced nearly change would cost them a combined total
150,000 people in March 2019. Rising sea of nearly US$1 trillion in the case of non-
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levels will increasingly create refugees as people action. At the same time, there is broad
flee low-lying areas. Indeed, defence and recognition among these same firms that
intelligence agencies are now regularly warning there are significant economic opportunities,
that climate change could trigger conflicts provided the right strategies are put in
severe enough to uproot entire populations. place. Countries will also experience losses
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unequally, with the highest economic costs
Exacerbation of geopolitical tensions being felt by large economies, while risk of
Countries will face more potential points exposure, death and non-economic costs is
of contention as climate change reshapes higher in smaller, poorer economies. 29
the security of and access to historic
common property resources, such as Capital market risks
fishing waters. Melting sea ice could Central banks increasingly see climate
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enable new shipping routes through the change as a systemic risk to the global
Arctic, as well as opportunities for natural capital market and recognize that

The Global Risks Report 2020 31