Page 17 - WEF Reoprt 2020

FIG U RE 1 .2 While there was progress late last year
Long-Term Risk Outlook towards a “Phase One” US-China trade
9
Top 10 risks by likelihood and impact over deal, tensions between the two have
harmed the economies of both countries
the next 10 years
and the global economic outlook as
Multistakeholders well: the tensions could cost US$700
billion in lost output in 2020 —almost
10
Likelihood Impact the amount of GDP lost by the entire
Extreme weather Climate action failure European Union due to the financial
crisis (US$757 billion between 2008 and
Weapons of mass 2009). The Organisation for Economic
11
Climate action failure
destruction Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Natural disaster Biodiversity loss warns, “Escalating trade conflicts are
taking an increasing toll on confidence and
Biodiversity loss Extreme weather investment, adding to policy uncertainty,
aggravating risks in financial markets
Human-made and endangering already weak growth
environmental disasters Water crises prospects worldwide.” Respondents to
12
Data fraud or theft Information infrastructure the Global Risks Perception Survey do
breakdown not expect overall economic tensions

Cyberattacks Natural disasters to cease—over 78% of them see
“economic confrontations” increasing
Water crises Cyberattacks in 2020 (see Figure 1.1).
Human-made
Global governance failure The environmental frontier
environmental disasters
In late 2019, UN Secretary-General António
Asset bubble Infectious diseases Guterres warned that a “point of no-return”
on climate change is “in sight and hurtling
toward us”. Respondents to the Forum’s
13
Global Shapers Global Risks Perception Survey also are
sounding the alarm. For the first time in
Likelihood Impact
the history of the survey, climate-related
Extreme weather Biodiversity loss issues dominated all of the top-five long-
term risks by likelihood among members
Biodiversity loss Climate action failure of the Forum’s multistakeholder community
(see Figure 1.2). And members of the
Climate action failure Water crises Global Shapers Community—the Forum’s
younger constituents—show even more
Human-made
Natural disasters
environmental disasters concern, ranking environmental issues as
the top risks in both the short and long
Human-made Extreme weather
environmental disasters terms (see Figure III, The Global Shapers
Weapons of mass Risk Landscape).
Water crises
destruction
Yet, although immediate multilateral and
Data fraud or theft Natural disasters multistakeholder coordination is needed to
address global warming (see Chapter 3,
Involuntary migration Food crises A Decade Left, and Chapter 4, Save the
Axolotl), global fracture—most recently
Social instability Infectious diseases exhibited at the 2019 UN Climate Change
Conference COP25 in Madrid—and a
Cyberattacks Cyberattacks
growth in nationalist policies risk preventing
meaningful action. 14
Economic Environmental Geopolitical
States are adapting to one of the most
Societal Technological dramatic effects of climate change—the
melting of Arctic ice—not by redoubling
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2019-2020.
See Appendix B for details. efforts to prevent further environmental

12 Global Risks 2020