Page 15 - WEF Reoprt 2020

Powerful economic, demographic and addressed through cooperative institutions REUTERS/JEAN-PAUL PELISSIER
technological forces are shaping a new and in ways that sought to minimize
balance of power. The result is an interruptions to cooperation for global
unsettled geopolitical landscape—one economic progress. And some have argued
in which states are increasingly viewing that greater economic interconnectedness
opportunities and challenges through a and interdependence in the last 20 years—
unilateral lens. What were once givens fostered by multilateral institutions—has
regarding alliance structures and multilateral acted as a check on great power conflict. 1
systems no longer hold as states question
the value of longstanding frameworks, But new dynamics—in certain cases,
adopt more nationalist postures in pursuit underlying forces that are the result of
of individual agendas and weigh the progress over the last three decades—are
potential geopolitical consequences of causing states to re-evaluate their approach
economic decoupling. to geopolitics. Today’s emerging economies
are expected to comprise six of the world’s
Beyond the risk of conflict, if stakeholders seven largest economies by 2050. Rising
2
concentrate on immediate geostrategic powers are already investing more in
advantage and fail to reimagine or adapt projecting influence around the world. And
3
mechanisms for coordination during this digital technologies are redefining what it
unsettled period, opportunities for action on means to exert global power. As these trends
4
key priorities will slip away. are unfolding, a shift in mindset is also taking
place among some stakeholders—from
multilateral to unilateral and from cooperative
Turbulence: The new normal to competitive. The resulting geopolitical
turbulence is one of unpredictability about
For much of the post–Cold War period, all who is leading, who are allies, and who will
but a few societies shared the aspiration end up the winners and losers.
of stable development in the context of
formally agreed (if not universally observed) As states respond to the challenges and
rules governed by multilateral institutions. opportunities offered by today’s epochal
Geopolitical challenges—from border power-shift, some view multilateral
conflicts to terrorist attacks—were often institutions as obstacles rather than

10 Global Risks 2020