Page 4 - WEF Reoprt 2020
P. 4

The Global Shapers Risks Landscape 2020
           Figure III: The Global Shapers Risk Landscape 2020                                                                     The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2020


                               Economic                                     Environmental

                                                                                              Climate  Biodiversity
                                                                                           action failure  loss
                                                                                                                                                                                    d
                                                                                                                                                                                     i
                                                                                                                                                                                   l
                                                                                                                                                                                    disasters
                                                                                                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                                                                                                         e
                                                                                                                                                                                          r
                                                                                                                                                                                        t
                                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                                        s
                                                                                                                                                                                  a
                                                                                                                                                                                  r
                                                                                                                                                                                t
                                                                                                                                                                                 u
                                                                                                                                                                              Natural
                                                                                                                                                                               a
                                                                                                     Extreme                                                                  N Natural disasters s
                                                                                       Human-made
                                                                                       environmental  weather
                                                                                       disasters  Natural disasters
             4.0                                             4.0                                                       4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          n
                                                                                                                                                                                                              a
                                                                                                                                                                                                           -
                                                                                                                                                                                                       m
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                e
                                                                                                                                                                                                            m
                                                                                                                                                   x
                                                                                                                                                       m
                                                                                                                                                    t
                                                                                                                                                      e
                                                                                                                                                 E Extreme weatherweather
                                                                                                                                                         e
                                 Critical  Unemployment                                                                                          Extr r eme  w e a t h e r                           H Human-madeHuman-made
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                                                                                                                                                                                        i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   s
                                                                                                                                                                                                         o
                                                                                                                                                                                                         onmental
                                                                                                                                                                                                              n
                                                                                                                                                                                                           m
                                                                                                                                                                                                          n
                                                                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                                                                        r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  d
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                a
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                                                                                                                                                                                                       v
                                                                                                                                                                                                     envir
                                                                                                                                                                                                      n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       e
                          Financial  infra-                                                                                                                                                          e environmental disaster r
                            failure  structure
                                 failure                                                                                                                                                             disasters
                    Unmanageable        Fiscal crises
                        inflation       Asset bubbles
                                                                                                                                         t
             3.5                   Energy price shock        3.5                                                                      I Infectious diseases s
                                                                                                                                             d
                                                                                                                                                  e
                                                                                                                                             diseases
                                                                                                                                          i
                                                                                                                                          o
                                                                                                                                           u
                                                                                                                                            s
                                                                                                                                       e
                                                                                                                                              i
                                                                                                                                               e
                                                                                                                                                a
                                                                                                                                       f
                                                                                                                                        c
                                                                                                                                              s
                                                                                                                                      n Infectious
                                                                                                                                                 s
                         Deflation
                                      Illicit trade
                                                                                                                                                               crises
                                                                                                                                                                  e
                                                                                                                                                                   s
                                                                                                                                                                 i
                                                                                                                                                                r
                                                                                                                                                                 s
                                                                                                                                                          o
                                                                                                                                                           o
                                                                                                                                                         F Food crises                              Biodiversity  l o s s
                                                                                                                                                         Food
                                                                                                                                                               c
                                                                                                                                                             d
                                                                                                                                                                                                      o
                                                                                                                                                                                                       d
                                                                                                                                                                                                        i
                                                                                                                                                                                                     i
                                                                                                                                                                                                           s
                                                                                                                                                                                                    B Biodiversity lossloss
                                                                                                                                                                                                             t
                                                                                                                                                                                                             y
                                                                                                                                                                                                           r
                                                                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                                                                            i
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                                                                                                                                            o
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                                                                                                                                        i
                                                                                                                                        l
                                                                                                                                      F Failure of
                                                                                                                                      Failur r e  of f
                                                                                                                                       a
              Impact                                                                                                                                                                                       G Global l
             3.0                                             3.0                                                                    u urban planning
                                                                                                                                      b
                                                                                                                                             n
                                                                                                                                         planning
                                                                                                                                         p
                                                                                                                                          a
                                                                                                                                           n
                                                                                                                                          l
                                                                                                                                     r urban
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           a
                                                                                                                                                                                                      governance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                f
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          eapons
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                                                                            n
                                                                                                                                                                                                             a
                                                                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                                                                              n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                c
                                                                                                                                                                                                           r
                  2.5
                Likelihood  3.0       3.5       4.0               2.5       3.0       3.5       4.0                                                                                                   g governance       W Weapons of mass s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 o
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           destruction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               u
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           d destruction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            e
                                                                                                                                                                                                              l
                                                                                                                                                                                                               u
                                                                                                                                                                                                                r
                                                                                                                                                                                                            f failure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 e
                                                                                                                                                                                                              i
                                                                                                                                                                                                             a failure
                              Geopolitical                                      Societal                                                              W Water crises        C Climate action
                                                                                                                                                      W
                                                                                                                                                       ater
                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                         t
                                                                                                                                                             r
                                                                                                                                                              s
                                                                                                                                                              i
                                                                                                                                                            crises
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                                                                                                                                                               e
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                                                                                                                                                                                      action
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                                                                                                                                                                                           n
                                                                                                                                                                               m
                                                                                                                                                                              l Climate
                                                                                                                                                                                   t
                                                                                                                                                                                          o
                                                                                                                                                                                      r
                                                                                                                                                                                 f failure
                                                                                                                                                                                      e
                                                                                                                                                                                      e
                                                                                                                                                                                    u
                                                                                                                                                                                 a failur
                                                                                                                                                                                    l
                                                                                                                                                                                   i
                                                                                               Water crises
                        Weapons of                                                                                                   C Critical infrastructure
                                                                                                                                          l
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                                                                                                                                     Critical
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                                                                                                                                      r
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                                                                                                                                           infrastructur
                        mass destruction
                                                                                                                                                   l
                                                                                                                                                     e
                                                                                                                                                    r
                                                                                                                                                   u
                                                                                                                                                  i
                                                                                                                                                     e
                                                                                                                                                 a failur
                                                                                   Food                                3.5                       f failure
                                                                                   crises                                  Average
                                                                           Infectious
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                       e
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                         s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          t
                                                                           diseases                                                                                                                                  I InterstateInterstate
                                                                                                                           3.47                                I Involuntary migration
                                                                                                                                                                           m
                                                                                                                                                                             i
                                                                                                                                                                           migration
                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                      t
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                                                                                                                                                               n Involuntary
                                                                                                                                                                     n
                                                                                                                                                                 v
                                                                                                                                                                   l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         fl
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      o
             4.0                   Interstate                4.0                                                                                                                                                     c conflictconflict t
                                                                                                                                                                                                    n
                                                                                                                                                                                                  i
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                                                                                                                                                                                                     a
                                                                                                                                                                                                 t
                                    conflict                                                                                                                                                  N NationalNational l
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                     Terrorist  State                                                                                          I InformationInformation
                                                                                                                                                                                                e
                                                                                                                               n
                                                                                                                                f
                                                                                                                               i infrastructuree
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                                                                                                                                                                                             g governancenance
                                                                                                                                                                                              o
                      attacks  collapse  Global governance failure                           Involuntary                       infrastructur r e                                             gover r n a n c e
                                                                                             migration
                                                                                                                                r br
                                                                                                                                      w
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                                                                                                                                 eakdown
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                                                                                                                                                                                                f failuree
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     l Illicit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         r
                                         National                                  Failure of                                  b breakdown               Cyberattacks                           failur r e           I Illicit trade e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        trade
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                                                                                                                                                                t
                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                                                                                                                                                    k
                                                                                                                                                                  c
                                                                                                                                                            b
                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                         C Cyberattacks
                                                                                                                                                           y
                                                                                                                                                               a
                                                                                                                                                              r
                                         governance                             urban planning
                                         failure
             3.5                                             3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                                                                                                                                                                   n
                                                                                                                                                                                   i
                                                                                                                                                                                        b
                                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                                      t
                                                                                                                                                                             o
                                                                                                                                                                           S Social instability
                                                                                                                                                                           Social l  instability
                                                                                                                                                                                a
                                                                                                                                                                                i
                                                                                                                                                                              c
                                                                                                                                                                                           i
                                                                                                                                                                                          l
                                                                                                                                                                                            y
                                                                                                                                                                                           t
                                                                                                                                                                                          i
                                                                                            Social instability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               attacks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            orist
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             r
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                           r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          err
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            o
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         T Terrorist attacks s
                                                                                                                                                                                                            t State
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                collapse
                                                                                                                                                                                                           S State collapse
                                                                                                                                                                                                              t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  l
                                                                                                                                                                                                              e
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    p
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      e
                                                                                                                                      Data  f r a u d  A Adverse technologicaltechnological l
                                                                                                                                      D Data fraudfraud
                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                        a
                                                                                                                                        t
                                                                                                                                                 Adverse
                                                                                                                                                            h
                                                                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                                                                               o
                                                                                                                                                        e
                                                                                                                                                             n
                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                    v
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                                                                                                                                                                 g
                                                                                                                                                                    a
                                                                                                                                                                   c
                                                                                                                                                                o
                                                                                                                                                                l
              Impact
             3.0                                             3.0                                                                       or r  t theft t  a advancesadvances                                               Ener r gy y  price e  s h o c k
                                                                                                                                       o or theft
                                                                                                                                           f
                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                         h
                                                                                                                                                        d
                                                                                                                                                             c
                                                                                                                                                              e
                                                                                                                                                               s
                                                                                                                                                         v
                                                                                                                                                          a
                                                                                                                                                           n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              p
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         E Energy price shockshock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            g
                                                                                                                                                                             l
                                                                                                                                                                                   n
                                                                                                                                                                               y
                                                                                                                                                                       n
                                                                                                                                                                      U Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                             o
                                                                                                                                                                          m
                                                                                                                                                                                 e
                                                                                                                                                                                m
                                                                                                                                                                            p
                                                                                                                                                                         e
                                                                                                                                                                                                         crises
                                                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                                                           i
                                                                                                                                                                                                         c
                                                                                                                                                                                                      c
                                                                                                                                                                                                          r
                                                                                                                                                                                                             s
                Likelihood  3.0       3.5       4.0               2.5       3.0       3.5       4.0                                                                   Unemployment  t               F Fiscal crises
                                                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                                                                                                                                                                                        l
                                                                                                                                                                                                            e
                                                                                                                                                                                                           s
                                                                                                                                                                                                     i Fiscal
                  2.5
                                                                                                                                               i
                                                                                                                                              F Financial failure
                                                                                                                                                a
                                                                                                                                               n
                                                                                                                                              Financial
                                                                                                                                                 n
                                                                                                                                                       i
                                                                                                                                                        l
                                                                                                                                                    a
                                                                                                                                                     l
                                                                                                                                                      failur
                                                                                                                                                      f
                                                                                                                                                      a
                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                                                                  c
                                                                                                                                                   i
                                                                                                                                                         r
                                                                                                                                                        u
                             Technological                                  Respondents                                3.0                                                                                           Unmanageable e  i n fl a t i o n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           g
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             b
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     U Unmanageable inflationinflation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          a
                                                                                                                                                                                                    o
                                                                                                                                                                                                e
                                                                                                                                                                                               D Deflation
                                                                                                                                                                                                     n
                                                                                                                                                                                                   t
                                                                                                                                                                                                 fl
                                                                                                                                                                                                  a
                                                                                                                                                                                                    i
                                                                                                                                                                    Asset t  b u b b l e       Deflation
                                                                                                                                                                       e
                                                                                                                                                                    A Asset bubblebubbles
                                                                                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                                                                                     s
                                       Cyberattacks                                   Shapers
             4.0            Information                               Multistakeholder
                           infrastructure
                            breakdown                                                                                              2.5                         3.0                         3.5                         4.0
                                              Data fraud or theft                                                                                                                 Average
                                                                 The Global Shapers Community is the World               Likelihood                                               3.32
                                                                 The Global Shapers Community is the World
                                                                 Economic Forum’s network of young people
                                                                 Economic Forum’s network of young people
                                                                 driving dialogue, action and change.                                     Economic             Geopolitical         Technological
             3.5                                                 driving dialogue, action and change.                                       Risks                Risks                 Risks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Number and strength
                                                                                                                                                   Environmental           Societal                             of connections
                            Adverse
                          technological                                                                                                               Risks                 Risks                               (“weighted degree”)
                            advances                             Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2019–2020.
                                                                 Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the
                                                                 Global Shapers as to the multi-stakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks
              Impact                                             Global Shapers as to the multistakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks
             3.0                                                 Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the
                                                                 Perception Survey and Methodology).
                                                                 We received 236 responses for Part 1 “The World in 2020” and 190 for Part 2
                                                                 Perception Survey and Methodology).
                                                                 “Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections”
                                                                 was not used.
                                                                 “Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections”
                Likelihood  3.0       3.5       4.0              We received 236 responses for Part 1 “The World in 2020” and 190 for Part 2  Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks  Note: Survey respondents were asked to select up to six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected.
                                                                                                                                                                               See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for
                  2.5
                                                                                                                                    Perception Survey 2019–2020.
                                                                 were not used.
                                                                                                                                                                               full names and descriptions.
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