Page 26 - WEF Reoprt 2020

FIG U RE 2 .1 FIG U RE 2 .3
IMF World Output Projections Foreign Direct Investment Net Inflows

Forecast 2020 Forecast 2019 US$ billions
800
3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 700

600
3.7%
3.6% 3.6% 500
3.5% 400
3.4%
3.5% 300
200
3.3% 100
3.2%
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3.0%
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
Euro Area United States China
2018 2019

Source: IMF. 2018 and 2019. World Economic Outlooks and Source: World BankOpen Data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.
quarterly updates. CD.WD?end=2018&locations=CN-XC-US&start=2009&view=chart, accessed 15
December 2019.

FIG U RE 2 .2
Change in Trade: Q1-Q3 (2018) to Q1-Q3 (2019)

-0.6%
-1.4%
-2.9%
-2.4% -2.4%
-2.6% World total
-3.3%
-4.4%
-4.7%

-7.5% -7.4%
Hong Kong S. Korea Germany Italy Japan Netherlands France China United United
SAR Kingdom States

Source: World Economic Forum estimates from WTO data, https://data.wto.org/, accessed 8 January 2020.

Like global growth, FDI remains lower than Weak confidence
it was before the 2008–2009 crisis. It has Business confidence, a precursor to
decreased for the last three years. In 2018, investment, has also deteriorated during 2019.
net FDI inflows were down 38% compared The Business confidence index—constructed
to 2017, and less than half of the level they by the Organisation for Economic
were in 2015. The sharpest decline has Co-operation and Development (OECD) using
7
been in the euro area (see Figure 2.3), where production data and business sentiment to
less appealing yields, lower production and anticipate future performance—signals that
uncertainty surrounding Brexit have led net the state of the global economy is expected
FDI inflows to the region to fall to a record to worsen in the short term. At the time of
low since the euro was adopted in 1999. writing this report, the index had declined for
8

The Global Risks Report 2020 21