Page 95 - WEF Reoprt 2020

The global risks landscape

For each of the 30 global risks listed in Appendix A, Formally, for any given risk i, its likelihood and impact—
N
respondents were asked to assess: (1) the likelihood denoted respectively likelihood and impact—are:
i
i
i
of each global risk occurring over the course of the 1
next 10 years, and (2) the severity of its impact at a likelihood i N likelihood
i,n
global level if it were to occur, both on a scale from i N N i
1 to 5 as follows: 1 i
likelihood i N likelihood
i,n
– Likelihood: a value of 1 for “very unlikely” and 5 for i N i
“very likely”
– Impact: a value of 1 for “minimal” impact and 5 for N i
“catastrophic” impact 1
impact = N impact
i,n
i
To reduce timing bias, respondents were reminded 1 i N i n=1
to assess the 30 risks over a 10-year period, as impact = impact
opposed to a time horizon of one year for the previous i N i i,n
n=1
40 risks. Again, to reduce framing bias, the values where N is the number of respondents for risk i,
i
within the 1–5 scale were not assigned specific and likelihood and impact are, respectively, the
i,n
i,n
wording. Respondents could leave the question likelihood and impact assigned by respondent n to
completely blank. Partial responses for any risk—those risk i. The likelihood is measured on a scale of 1–5
assessing only the likelihood of occurrence or only the and the impact on a scale of 1–5. N is the number of
i
negative impact—were not included in the results. respondents for risk i who assessed both the likelihood
and impact of that specific risk.
A simple average for both likelihood and impact for
each of the 30 global risks was calculated on this
basis. The results are illustrated in the Global Risks
Landscape 2020 (Figure II).

Global risks interconnections

Part 3 of the GRPS assesses interconnections global risks below (one risk can be connected to
between pairs of global risks. any one of the other 29 global risks).” The results are
illustrated in the Global Risks Interconnections Map
For the interconnections between pairs of risks, survey 2020 (Figure IV). A tally was made of the number of
respondents were asked the following question: times each pair was cited.
“Global risks are not isolated, and it is important to
assess their interconnections. In your view, which are In the Global Risks Landscape and the Interconnections
the most strongly connected global risks? Please Map, the size of each risk is scaled according to the
select three to six pairs of global risks, from the 30 weight of that node in the system.

90 Appendices